How to assess the likelihood of risk if a KRI fires

Defining how strongly the KRI’s signal relates to the Risk is done by assigning a likelihood percentage:

High likelihood (close to 100%) → If this KRI fires, it is very probable that the Risk is also present. A KRI is strongly correlated with the Risk.
Medium likelihood (around 50%) → If this KRI fires, the Risk might be present, but other causes are also possible.
Low likelihood (close to 0%) → If this KRI fires, it does not strongly indicate that the Risk is present.

In addition, you also need to define the opposite case: what is the chance that the Risk occurs even though none of its KRIs fire? This captures the possibility that the Risk manifests without being detected by the KRIs:

High likelihood (close to 100%) → The Risk is largely independent of the defined KRIs, so it may often occur without them being triggered.
Medium likelihood (around 50%) → The Risk is somewhat tied to KRIs, but there are still considerable external factors that may cause it without any indicator firing.
Low likelihood (close to 0%) → The Risk is almost always linked to at least one KRI, so if no KRI fires, it’s very unlikely the Risk occurs.

Tip: Look at the Detectability score of the Risk. If the Risk is easy to detect (Detectability = 1), then the likelihood of “Risk without KRI” should be low.

Note: the percentages for different KRIs do not have to add up to 100%.

The likelihood for a KRI firing and the likelihood for the Risk occurring without any KRIs firing cannot both be high or both low — they should reflect a realistic balance.

To associate a KRI with a risk and set its likelihood, follow these steps:

Navigate to the Risk Management → Risks page, find the relevant risk.

1 - Click the Add an Associated Risk Indicator button and select a KRI

2 - Click the Edit Likelihood icon

3 - Adjust the slider position or enter a percentage in the input field

4 - Click the Save Changes to Likelihood button